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Forecasting Growth in the Australian Painting Industry: A 24-Month Outlook

National Painting and Decorating Institute | 13 Mar 2024

The Australian painting industry stands as a pivotal element within the construction sector, playing a crucial role in both residential and commercial projects. Various factors such as population growth, urbanization, and government infrastructure investments have significantly shaped the industry's trajectory. This report aims to forecast the growth of the Australian painting industry over the next 24 months, focusing on sectors including residential repaints, new infrastructure projects, new housing, and maintenance of commercial buildings. Through the analysis of current trends, statistical data, and employment prospects, this report provides insights into the anticipated evolution of the industry.

Current Industry Overview

Before delving into the forecast, it's essential to understand the current state of the Australian painting industry. As of January 2024, the industry employs over 60,000 individuals and generates approximately AU$10 billion in revenue annually, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Deloitte Economics and HIA. Residential repaints alone contribute around 40% of the total painting industry revenue.

Residential Repaints Sector

The residential repaints sector is anticipated to maintain its stability over the forecast period. Despite economic uncertainties, the housing market remains robust, with homeowners investing in property maintenance. The residential repaints sector is projected to witness a modest annual growth rate of 2-3% over the next two years.

New Infrastructure Projects

The Australian government's commitment to infrastructure development is poised to drive growth in the painting industry. With over $100 billion worth of infrastructure projects in the pipeline, major endeavors such as road construction, bridge rehabilitation, and public transport upgrades will necessitate extensive painting and coating services. The infrastructure sector is expected to experience robust growth, with a projected annual expansion rate of 5-7% during the forecast period, as estimated by the Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Communications.

New Housing Sector

While the new housing sector has faced challenges such as a downturn in approvals, the short-term trend indicates lower demand for painting services in residential developments. Economists expect housing starts to fall from 172,000 in the 2023 financial year to 154,000 in FY24, before recovering to 166,000 in FY25.

Maintenance of Commercial Buildings

The maintenance of commercial buildings remains a stable source of revenue for painting contractors. As businesses prioritize attractive and functional spaces, regular painting and maintenance become imperative. The commercial sector is expected to witness moderate growth, with a projected annual expansion rate of 3-4% during the forecast period, based on data from commercial real estate analytics firm, CBRE.

Employment Prospects

The forecasted growth in the Australian painting industry is expected to have a positive impact on employment prospects. With increasing demand across various sectors, opportunities for skilled painters, apprentices, and support staff are anticipated to grow. Additionally, the National Painting and Decorating Institute's emphasis on training and certification programs will attract new talent, ensuring a skilled workforce to meet evolving customer demands.

In conclusion, the Australian painting industry is positioned for growth over the next 24 months, driven by factors such as population growth, infrastructure investments, and housing demand. While challenges such as economic uncertainties and regulatory changes may pose obstacles, the overall outlook for the industry remains positive. By focusing on key sectors such as residential repaints, new infrastructure projects, and maintenance of commercial buildings, painting contractors can capitalize on emerging opportunities and contribute to the continued development of the Australian construction sector.


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